On September 2, 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Statistics Service reported that in the state of Missouri remnants of Hurricane Isaac dropped much needed rainfall across the state improving topsoil moisture supplies.
While crop, pasture and forage conditions were all reported as improved, the numbers were slight and the conclusion from USDA was that “prolonged precipitation is still needed to replenish stock water supplies.”
According to Ron Plain, D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics and extension economist at the University of Missouri, there are two major weather patterns that constrain plant growth, even on well-managed farms. Those weather patterns are drought and winter.
“There is an old saying, if you are going to have a drought, winter is a good time to have it,” Plain said. “Someday, it will rain again and Missouri’s parched fields will become soggy. But, winter is likely to show up first.”
Plain predicts that a chance for corn and soybeans to have a bumper crop may exist in 2013, pending rain relief of course. For pastures, he predicts some fall growth, but most producers will not see an opportunity to have surplus forage supplies before next spring. Consequently, feed costs are likely to remain high well into 2013.
“An important strategy for cow-calf producers is to not let their cattle numbers exceed their expected forage supply,” he added. “Hot, dry summers, and cold, snowy winters are not that rare. Either one can deplete the hay supply and leave producers with two bad choices, buying feed at a high cost or selling cattle on a down market.”
When it turned dry in the southern plains in the spring of 2011, Texas and Oklahoma cattle producers had two choices, buy feed or sell cattle. “They didn’t have any significant hay stocks,” Plain said. “When it turned dry in the Midwest in 2012, cattle producers had three choices, buy feed, sell cattle or start feeding the hay you had planned to use next winter. Most chose option three. We now have a situation where many cattlemen are headed into winter without hay. Thus, they are down to buying feed or selling cattle.”
The best thing for a producer to consider to help ease the burden of possible current or future hardships due to high feed costs and/or changing feed management is to carry reserves. “The best hedge for Missouri cattle producers is hay in storage,” Plain said.
Another important issue during periods of drought is feed quality. “Droughts bring high prices which brings people to baling weeds into hay and feeding poor quality crops,” Plain said. “Nitrate poisoning and aflatoxin are more of a problem in dry years.”
The first thing producers need to do in order to take care of crop adjustments for drought conditions is to have crop insurance.
Producers should contact their county extension offices for more information on how to manage drought production challenges, or visit ozarksfn.com for online resources.
